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标题 人口老龄化、区域创新与产业结构升级
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    卓乘风+邓峰

    摘 要:(中)摘要利用中国2003—2015年省级面板数据,从创新型人才区际流动视角构建空间权重矩阵,考察了人口老龄化对产业结构升级的区域异质性影响、区域创新在其中的异质性杠杆作用及演化特征。研究表明:考察期内中国整体产业结构不断优化,但两极分化现象有所加剧,各地区在推动产业结构升级过程中存在“以邻为壑”的现象。就全国整体和西部地区而言,人口老龄化阻碍了产业结构升级,但这种阻碍作用在东部地区并不显著,此外,中部地区人口老龄化与产业结构之间存在正向关联;提升区域创新能力能明显弱化人口老龄化对产业结构升级的阻碍作用,但区域创新的这种杠杆作用在中部地区并不显著;对于全国、东部及西部地区而言,随着区域创新能力跨越两个门槛值,人口老龄化对产业结构升级的影响表现出“阻碍→不显著→促进”的演化特征,而对于中部地区,其演化规律则为“阻碍→促进→不显著”。在上述研究基础上,本文提出了相应的建议。

    关键词:(中)关键词人口老龄化;产业结构升级;区域创新;杠杆效应

    中图分类号:(中)中图分类号F121.3;F276 文献标识码:A 文章编号:1000-4149(2018)01-0048-13

    DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2018.01.005

    Abstract:(英)摘要Based on Chinese provincial panel data during 2003 to 2015,this paper built spatial weight matrix from the perspective of innovative talents interregional flow,investigated the heterogenous effect of population aging on the upgrade of industrial structure, the heterogenous leverage and evolution characteristics among them from regional innovation. Research shows that: 1) during the investigated period,Chinas overall industrial structure optimize ceaselessly with the polarization phenomenon increased,and there is the “beggarthyneighbour”phenomenon around the overall country in the process of promoting the upgrade of industrial structure;2) from the perspective of the overall country and the western region,population aging hinders the upgrade of industrial structure,but the effect is not significant in eastern region,additionally,there is a significant positive correlation between the population aging and the upgrade of industrial structure in central region;3) the ascension of innovation ability can significantly weaken the prevention of the population aging to upgrade of industrial structure,but as far as central region,the leverage of regional innovation is not significant;4) for the whole country,eastern and western region,with the regional innovation ability leap over the two threshold value,the influence of population aging on the upgrade of industrial structure appears the evolution of the “block→not significant→promote”,but for the central region,its evolving regularity is “no significant→block→promote”.Based on the above research,some suggestions were put forward.

    Keywords:(英)關键词population aging;upgrade of industrial structure;regional innovation;leverage

    一、引言与文献综述

    进入21世纪以来,中国的人口年龄结构迅速老化,老年抚养比不断攀升,“人口红利”逐渐消退,预计2050年左右我国60岁以上人口比例将达到30%—40%,中国将成为全球老龄化最严重的国家之一。人口年龄结构的老化一方面会造成劳动者智力体力供给在生产活动中发生变化,从而影响产业发展;另一方面随着有效劳动力供给的降低,经济发展必然由劳动密集型向资本和技术密集型转变,在此过程中,劳动力的智力体力供给能否适应这一产业调整,就成为一个值得关注的问题[1]。然而,“新常态”下中国经济要实现持续健康发展就必须向结构要动力,那么,在这种现实背景下,人口老龄化的不断加剧会不会阻碍“新常态”下中国产业结构转型升级?对于具有大国经济特征的中国而言,二者的关联性是否存在区域异质性?此外,当人口老龄化与实施创新驱动发展战略、推进创新型国家建设背景相叠加时,区域创新又会在人口老龄化影响产业结构升级的过程中扮演什么角色?回答这些问题对于在人口老龄化不断加剧的情形下推动产业结构转型升级、延续中国经济的全球竞争力具有重要的现实意义。

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